16 de marzo de 2009
El Premio Nobel de Economía 2008, Paul Krugman, durante la celebración del Foro Económico Innovae y, en presencia de José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, opina sobre la situación de la crisis en España: “Las perspectivas económicas de España son aterradoras. La situación económica es especialmente difícil en España. Los próximos años van a ser muy difíciles para los españoles. El camino de salida de la crisis para España será doloroso o extremadamente doloroso”.

Winston Churchill said of the Greeks “From now on we won’t say that the Greeks fight like heroes … but heroes fight like the Greeks”

Interesante articulo sobre Obama en el FT

MUCHOS PROYECTOS POCAS REALIDADES

Obama’s first anniversary

The other day, I spoke at the Berkeley hotel the annual CEO dinner held by Walpole, the non-profit group which promotes British-based luxury businesses. There were plenty of tough questions on bankers’ bonuses, Tory tax plans, and India’s economic performance versus China. But the one which got me thinking was: will President Obama do better in his second year than his first?

I answered that expectations were unrealistically high, a point made in my end of year review published in the Weekend FT before Christmas. Obama had to rescue the US economy, recapitalise the banks, and he decided to push for a once-in-a generation reform of health care and negotiate an international deal on climate change. Oh, and he had to mend relations with the Arab world, manage a belligerent Russia, contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, refocus the military effort in Afghanistan and deal with an increasingly confident China which sees superpower status as its manifest destiny.

This year all those problems remain on the table – and more. Iran is particularly fraught because the regime is increasingly on edge, the official crackdown is intensifying, while internal opposition is growing, thanks to courageous leadership on the ground. This month, Obama will have to decide whether to press for UN sanctions. If he goes ahead with economic measures, he risks punishing the people. If he does nothing, he will be accused of being soft by the likes of Dick Cheney and the rest of the Republican party. It’s going to be a very tough year. He will do well to score 7/10. (Last year, I would give him a seven for action, and a nine for words….)

www.ft.com/obama

Un hombre inteligente es aquel que sabe ser tan inteligente como para contratar gente más inteligente que él. JFK político americano asesinado

CHRIs KOTOWSKI de OPPENHEIMER uno de los mejores analistas del mundo de bancos,ha comentado el siguiente articulo,que es de especial interes.

• Citi’s fourth quarter earnings report was weaker than expected in P&L terms, but on balance we saw more positive than negative in the quarter, as it was the first time in several years that asset quality trends showed some signs of stabilization. As we have said on a number of other occasions, in the current environment we believe that asset quality trumps all other issues and thus on balance we breathe a small sigh of relief at the results, which seem to point to a turn in asset quality. We think the shares are fairly valued in the $3.50 to $3.75 range, which approximates pro forma tangible book value
• Pre-provision earnings (PPE) excluding a number of charges related to TARP repayment and the CVA charges related to improving credit spreads was about $4.7B, down from $8.2B in the prior quarter and our expectations of $7.8B.
• The shortfall came mainly from “principal transaction” or trading profits of $0.1B versus our $2.0B expectations. This weakness is basically consistent with what we saw from JPM last week and we would not read too many implications about 2010 or beyond into this number.
• Asset quality was substantially better than expected as NCOs declined from $8.0B to $7.1B, the second consecutive decline. NPAs were flattish at $33.8B vs. $33.6B in the prior quarter, indicating that the net new problem inflow was just $7.2B versus $23.3B in 3Q09.
• Most of the key early delinquency statistics appeared stable.
• We expect pro forma tangible book value, adjusted to reflect both the impact of FAS166/167 and the contractually agreed to ADIA share purchase, to be about $3.91 per share, and we believe that the share price discount is a bit too steep.

The W page nace con la vocación de ser un foro de inquietudes intergenaracionales, como enlace entre dos generaciones con inquietudes de política exterior y economia en un mundo globalizado.

Aspiramos a compartir vivencias e inquietudes entre dos generaciones a las que le tocara vivir realidades analizadas desde prismas distintos   partiendo de una crisis espectacular en lo financiero y lo moral en las economias occidentales.

Sabiendo que los mejores análisis y oportunidades se generan cuando las crisis acaban para aquellos que son capaces de compartir vivencias y crear sinergias entre la experiencia de una generacion y el empuje con la ausencia de temor que tienen las nuevas generaciones.

• Elevemos al cuadrado algunos números:

1² = 1
11² = 121
111² = 12321
1111² = 1234321
…
111111111² = 12345678987654321

Parece fácil de operar. Es, simplemente, escribir como si estuviéramos contando el número de unos que tenemos, y cuando lleguemos al total volver hacia tras: 111²= 1uno 2unos 3unos total 2unos 1uno

Este truco tiene un inconveniente cuando tenemos más de nueve unos. Por ejemplo, para diez unos el uno del 10 pasa sumado a la cifra anterior: 1111111111² = 123456789(10)987654321 = 12345678(9+1)0987654321 = 1234567900987654321